From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”